Who realistically would win the Civil War?

[Iceman_mat]

My only point of the analogy is that the Stormcloaks could become heavily decentralized IF they wanted to, just like any other group that's ever existed. There may or may not be a better analogy, though.

I dunno about that either though. From my dealings with both factions I kinda had the feeling that if Ulfric and his #2 guy were removed from the equation then the chain of command would fall apart. To be heavily decentralized they would have to operate in 2 - 5 man cells to which I don't think they could do effectivly. Not to say they can't do it at all with military training but not effectivly. Of course I don't know either side in depth and could be mistaken. This is my opinion from talking to both sides whilst trying to stay neutral in my play through.

-Cheers

 

[Dagmar]

One huge problem with this reasoning I just wanted to mention: these acts were committed in a time before there were any modern-day inventions of "war crimes"...

The concept of war crimes clearly exists in Tamriel:

In the wake of the aftermath of the Great War, you can imagine the backlog on stately matters the Empire had. Before a peace treaty could be resolved with the Forsworn, a militia led by Ulfric Stormcloak sieged [sic] the gates of their capital, Markarth. What happened during that battle was war, but what happened after the battle was over is nothing short of war crimes.

Sometimes analogies between the real world and the fictional world of Tamriel don't carry well.

 

[Omega Dragon]

The concept of war crimes clearly exists in Tamriel:

Sometimes analogies between the real world and the fictional world of Tamriel don't carry well.

Fair enough then.

 

[nacman99]

the empire. they have more resources, more troops and more experience. even if the stormcloacks take the lead, the empire could just call for reinforcement from other provinces.

 

[jdhorrigan]

I voted Imperial, but I still think it's mostly anyone's game. This civil war is very similar to many revolutions and rebellions through history, and as an example, I'll use the American revolution. Ulfric kind of reminds me of George Washington, in that he has military experience with the Empire in the Great War (like GW with the British in the 7 years war), and his charisma might be what it takes to rally his armies and win the war. I think the deciding factor is if Ulfric can swing the neutral Nords to his side to turn the tables in his favor. Although, even that might not be enough, as the empire can draw troops from all the provinces of the empire, while Ulfric has only Skyrim. What would seal the deal for the Stormcloaks is if independent Hammerfell joins in, which Ulfric might be able to convince them to do, what with the Reguards resenting the empire and his charisma. Well, that's my two cents, I didn't really put any research into, so half the things I said are probably wrong anyway.

 

[NikolaTesla]

The Empire would win and I don't think it would be as close or as difficult as y'all are making it out to be.

It actually would be quite a close encounter, as out in the open fields the Empire holds the advantage. But as soon as they hit a city BAM! It would be a bloody fight just to move up a few feet. A counter argument could be it is equally difficult for the Stormcloaks to storm a city as well. But In city combat Stormcloak tactics would likely win every time. Just look at Windhelm, narrow streets, tall buildings, and twisting streets. the Empire would lose all their advantages. On a one versus one scale, the Stormcloaks would likely win every single time, as many of their troops are skilled adventurers and warriors, but have little to no training when it comes to fighting as an organized group. In a city like Windhelm the Stormcloaks could hold out for quite a while, unless the ports are blockaded, (which is likely but I have not really heard of naval combat in Skyrim. although it would be really coll to be a pirate.) The entrance way(the walkway up to the city gate) Could become a complete killing ground, with it's raised areas for archers, and narrow ways for swords and axe men to slowly bleed Imperial forces. The cost of taking such a city would be devastating loss of life, mainly on the Imperial side. But If it comes out into a siege battle, the Empire could blockade the port, and slowly starve out the city, finally assaulting when all it's inhabitants are weak and hungry.

 

[Psiberzerker]

A few points:

Dawnstar is screwed. Might as well already be in Imperial hands, write it off. I'd count Whiterun as Neutral, as you eliminated all the events which would result in them finally siding with the Empire. Markarth is probably the best defended city in Skyrim. They could survive a siege indefinitely. the only way in is a box canyon, with a mustre field in range of the walls, and guard towers. If Solitude falls, they could move the capitol there, and probably be better off. Solitude is the 2nd best defended. There's the secondary entrance up from below, (Which you escape out of after assassinating the Decoy) but that could be barracaded, and bottlenecked as a killing room. Windhelm is the 3rd best defended, and Riften is a smuggler's town, which means it could never be adequately secured. Falkreath, yeah, you nailed it. The closest point for reinforcement is Cyrodiil. Winterhold has terrain advantage, and the College. They might not get involved, but any invader would have to risk it. Morthal has no resources besides Water. No Blacksmith, General Store, just an Apothecary, and the Jarl's house. Maybe a small militia of warriors, but not enough to repel any force. I have characters who could take it single handedly.

My vote is Empire, because they have a continental army to reinforce them. Kill Tullius, and they can send another general, and another, until the rebellion is quashed for good. They also have the Thalmor, while the Stormcloaks repress almost all Magic, and Magic using races. An assault through the docs would likely cause a riot in the Grey Quarter, and I wouldn't be surprised if the repressed Dunmer joined the fight.

 

[Ran The King]

It actually would be quite a close encounter, as out in the open fields the Empire holds the advantage. But as soon as they hit a city BAM! It would be a bloody fight just to move up a few feet. A counter argument could be it is equally difficult for the Stormcloaks to storm a city as well. But In city combat Stormcloak tactics would likely win every time. Just look at Windhelm, narrow streets, tall buildings, and twisting streets. the Empire would lose all their advantages. On a one versus one scale, the Stormcloaks would likely win every single time, as many of their troops are skilled adventurers and warriors, but have little to no training when it comes to fighting as an organized group. In a city like Windhelm the Stormcloaks could hold out for quite a while, unless the ports are blockaded, (which is likely but I have not really heard of naval combat in Skyrim. although it would be really coll to be a pirate.) The entrance way(the walkway up to the city gate) Could become a complete killing ground, with it's raised areas for archers, and narrow ways for swords and axe men to slowly bleed Imperial forces. The cost of taking such a city would be devastating loss of life, mainly on the Imperial side. But If it comes out into a siege battle, the Empire could blockade the port, and slowly starve out the city, finally assaulting when all it's inhabitants are weak and hungry.

No it wouldn't. Superior numbers, battlemages, better equipment. It's really not close. The Legion is NOT a foreign force, Skyrim has and always will be the BACKBONE of the Empire. Most of the Stormcloack soldiers were in the Legion, meaning they would use the same tactics as the Empire. Not all of Skyrim is behind the Stormcloacks a lot of them are still supportive of the empire, I'd bet more of them still support the Empire than want to break away. Windhelm would hold out because that is the center of the Stormcloack movement, just as Solitude would hold out for a long time if under siege being the center of the Empire in Skyrim. Only two cities are susceptible to naval combat in Skyrim and that is Solitude(the ports) and Dawnstar which HEAVILY favor the Empire since, the Empire has a navy and the Stormcloacks well... Don't. Fact of the matter is even if the Stormcloacks found a way to hold off the legion in skyrim guess what the Empire will send in three more and enforce martial law. Stormcloacks have no chance in hell of winning the war, unless they could convince the Dovah to fight for them or something.

 

[King o' the Britains]

Imperials.They could send in troops from cyrodil and are better trained

 

[Medea]

I would compare Imperials vs. Stormcloaks to Rome vs. the barbarian hordes.

One-on-one a stormcloak soldier might be more powerful physically, and the stormcloaks would probably have an "every man for himself" mentality in battle, which might very well throw the imperial legion's rigid formations into chaos (the imperials would have the "group is more important than the individual" mentality). There's no way the stormcloaks would fight the imperials on their own terms (out in the middle of an open field where the imperial formations would crush them).

I know they don't fight that way "in the game", but that's how they would fight against the empire in real life.

If you look at history, this is how small, technologically inferior forces always ended up defeating armies that were much more powerful and advanced than they were. Guerrilla tactics. Just look at the Americans vs. the British in the battle for independence, the Viet-Cong vs. the U.S., and even now, as the wars in the Middle East threaten to bankrupt the U.S., because various terrorist factions are using guerrilla tactics to prolong a stalemate with the most powerful country on earth. The only way to actually win a war against forces like this is to be totally ruthless, and wipe them all out, not worrying about civilian casualties or collateral damage. Something the empire (or the U.S.) would not be willing to do.

The big question is: Would the empire eventually become so corrupt, as Rome had become, to the point where they couldn't even support a military anymore? That is actually what led to the barbarians having a field day and sacking Rome, and by that time Rome was so close to falling from corruption anyway, it was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.

So far, the Imperials do not show the signs of corruption that Rome showed, so I say the empire cannot be defeated. It's just too powerful. But that doesn't mean the Stormcloaks could make this war an unending affair. If the Stormcloaks used the right tactics, they might very well force the empire to regroup and give up their control over Skyrim.

 

[SilverRhythm]

Actually this topic can be placed in the article section^^. Very well written and I enjoy reading all the comments and ideas people give here. A good debate but somehow everything looks one-sided that the Imperials are sure to win the war regardless of any Dragonborne activities and the Dark Brotherhood quests.

My opinion thus this far is the Imperial are up for the win. But I guess I will give myself a more in-depth analysis when I play the game and maybe can come up with a better deduction ^^. I will be right back

 

[Sweet Rolls]

Freedom will always prevail, and the Stormcloaks are fighting for freedom from an empire who want to drag Skyrim down with it.

The Empire is much richer than the rebellion and is probably better equipped but Nords (and Redguards) are the best warriors in Tamriel and have immense courage and pride.

Redguards are managing to get the Dominion out of the independent Hammerfell and have reclaimed the land they lost when the Empire sold it to the Thalmor after the Great War. Nords can do the same I think, they're strong enough to fight for their freedom and will be able to do the same against the Thalmor once they've regained their strength after the Civil War. Who knows maybe they'll get some help from Hammerfell in crushing the Dominion.

From a non-biased point of view it will most likely be the Stormcloaks who will be written down in TES lore as the winners of the war. I think Bethesda are making it so that the Empire will slowly die and make way for the evil High Elven supremacists, who will then be defeated somehow and an age of peace will be ushered in where Tamriel is peaceful free and independent (I.E. the Fifth Era), free from any form of empire but united against any threat to freedom.

At least that's how I'd like to see it maybe it'll be written down that the Empire quelled the rebellion and then went on to Great War II with the Dominion. Only time will tell.

 

[Ritterkreuz]

From a non-biased point of view it will most likely be the Stormcloaks who will be written down in TES lore as the winners of the war. I think Bethesda are making it so that the Empire will slowly die and make way for the evil High Elven supremacists, who will then be defeated somehow and an age of peace will be ushered in where Tamriel is peaceful free and independent (I.E. the Fifth Era), free from any form of empire but united against any threat to freedom.

A great plot line for TES 6 could be the liberation of men and the overthrowing of an oppressive elven empire.

 

[wahoowa]

A real wildcard here that we don't fully understand is how powerful Ulfric really is.

When I played through the game the first time, I got a sense that one of the main reasons the Imperials hadn't launched a full-scale invasion of Stormcloak territories (Windhelm, in particular) to suppress the rebellion was that they were wary of engaging the Stormcloaks in wide-scale, open-field combat. I agree with what other posters have said regarding the Imperials' military advantage (sheer manpower + training + weapons + tactics + other factors), but if Ulfric's Voice (which we really know VERY little about, other than that he has at least one shout and he used it to kill Torygg) is anywhere near as powerful as the Dragonborn's... he could be DEVASTATING in a large-scale battle. A kind of superweapon, potentially, able to thwart any Imperial attempt to fight the Stormcloaks head-on. We can assume that he is less powerful than the Dragonborn, though, but if Ulfric can turn the tide of any battle with his Voice it would explain both the Imperials' hesitance to crush the rebellion AND why the Stormcloaks don't seem to be accomplishing much with him sitting in his palace and yet are still portrayed as some kind of rough equal to the Imperial contingent present in Skyrim.

All of that leads me to believe that if Ulfric dies, the Stormcloak cause is pretty much done for. The movement already appears to be very centralized around Ulfric and his cult of personality... it's not like the real-life example of Washington in the American Revolution, who would have simply been replaced if he had died, albeit by someone of lesser tactical ability and charisma. Most of the Stormcloak rhetoric centers on Ulfric and making him the High King.

Most of the conversation in-game, from what I recall, regarding the Ulfric-Torygg incident regards the "legitimacy" of Ulfric's claim to be High King of Skyrim. Ulfric himself seems to emphasize that he killed Torygg to prove that HE should sit on the throne... If Ulfric died, then any point the Stormcloaks might have is moot.

The Stormcloak cause, as a whole, seems rather vulnerable in that it is wholly reliant on Ulfric being alive so that he can be the "true High King of Skyrim." There doesn't really seem to be a greater explanation for the uprising, in fact, it is said by a few NPCs in-game that a proto-Stormcloak movement had existed since the ending of the Great War, but it wasn't until Ulfric got involved that it became a full-fledged rebellion and took the form that we see in-game.

Regarding the issue of the Stormcloak insurgency as a "rebellion," "revolution," or "civil war," I think it is, in a way, all three. Stormcloak rhetoric, to the best of my knowledge, asserts that they want Ulfric to be king (the "revolution" part). That in and of itself is not wholly incompatible with Skyrim being a part of the Empire, but it does seem to be implied that an Ulfric-led Skyrim would NOT consider itself a part of the Empire. Skyrim is part of the bedrock of the Empire, via the whole Tiber Septim thing and the fact that Skyrim, along with Cyrodil, are pretty much the founding provinces of it. In Morrowind we saw for ourselves a province that was OCCUPIED by the Empire - how the natives felt, how Imperial citizens/legions were distributed, the history of how Morrowind was forced into the Empire, and how the Imperials themselves viewed the province. Skyrim, both the province and the game itself (atmosphere, lore), feels quite different. The Empire is not a foreign force in Skyrim, we hear this over and over from NPCs and know it from the ES lore.

The American Civil War shares some parallels to the Skyrim Civil War, but is different in several key ways. First of all, the southern states of the US tried to SECEDE from their parent nation to form their own - the war only happened because the northern states viewed secession as unacceptable and acted to forcefully reintegrate them. From what we can reasonably assume, the population of Skyrim is split roughly equally in support of both sides along a few geographical and political boundaries - Solitude, Markarth, Whiterun* in support of the Empire, Windhelm in support of the Stormcloaks, etc.

The Stormcloaks want to FORCE Markarth, Solitude apart from the Empire, even if those cities/Holds do not want to leave. That is what makes them different from the Confederate states, who were perfectly fine with the separate existence of a United States, so long as it let them be their own independent nation. And it's not like the Stormcloaks were a common, unified race, either - we see that the native Nords are split. It's a revolution because the Stormcloaks oppose the current governing body, but it's also a civil war because the governing body, even if it called "the Empire" and has its seat in a different province, is a very natural part of Skyrim.

 

[Seanu Reaves]

Empire. IMO, General Tulius basically already won he had Ulfric and decided just to execute him no Alduin boom victory. But asides from that it sounded like the Storm cloaks would had won if only because the Empire was spread thin, but over a long period of like like over a century in my opinion. unless the empire would be able to focus all thier forces and the Thalmor could actually help. But I say in the end Empire. Plus if it got to bad, Empire could even go to the Dark Brotherhood even weakened. Tuluis I see as that great of a strategist.

 

[Unit7]

Wahoowa has a great point about Ulfric. We don't know how strong his Voice is. Even after leaving the Greybeards he could have kept up with his training. Is he as powerful as the Dragonborn? Unlikely because the Dragonborn. However many of the World Walls are out in the open, free to study. So I'd argue that Ulfric probably knows more shouts then he is seen demonstrating ingame(of which I have only seen Unrelenting Force but I hear he uses more)

Just Unrelenting Force is a powerful shout by itself. Just Fus would be able to stagger enemies. That moment could be more then enough to give the Stormcloaks the upperhand. The Full shout? Shoot. I'v seen Giants fly several yards away... so what would the likes of a bunch of puny men stand a chance?

Of course if Ulfric was smart he'd try teaching Shouting to his most loyal men. Takes years to master a shout sure. But if I were him I'd have begun training before challenging Toryg. Of course for whatever reason you never do come across a Stormcloak who is capable of shouting. Which to me feels like 1) Ulfric is just too damn paranoid or 2) He was entirely stupid and forgot this. Again from what I understand Shouting is a skill any Nord can have with the right dedication and training and probably lots and lots of meditation.

So realistically? The fact that the Stormcloaks have someone who was trained by the Greybeads to shout and potentiall pass down the training to his men? It gives the Stormcloaks an incredible advantage.

Oh I know what you are thinking. Why was Ulfric captured if he is so skilled wiht the Voice?

A question I am more then capable of... hell if I know. Of course it may have just been the overwhelming of numbers. also... what does happen when someone shouts while gaged? Would the force be enough to rip off ones gag or would your head simply explode?

Which makes me believe that Ulfric Stormcloak's gag was there for pure symbolism. The Imperials had conqured someone who has mastered the voice. The way Ulfric was captured was because of a paralyzing poison. Hell you can find them in just about any shop in Skyrim and if not the ingrediants are probably right on the shelf. Imperials coated their arrows and... bam. It explains why I have no recollection of the fight. I mean I was at that ambush wasn't I? Yet I don't remember anything before noon that day!

So Ulfric was poisoned. Yup. But that's all pure speculation.

But I do think that we shouldn't forget about Ulfric's ability to shout and the potential for him to train others. Now let's also not forget that one of the words to Stormcall is right out in the open for anyone to see. Sure in game you'd need to go through a dungeon. But in real life? Hell just grab a ladder.

Of course I suppose because we have only seen the Dragonborn we don't know how long advanced words and concepts like Storm Call would take to use. Unrelenting Force, while incredibly powerful seems like a more basic concept then say summoning thunder and lightning. But imagine a stealthy person entering a large imperial camp and using the storm call shout? They'd be in the center of the storm.

But again who knows how long it would take Ulfric to master Storm Call... or marked for death... and then pass it on to his loyal men and women.

But I believe that this is worth considering.

So who would win in a realistic war?

Well all I know is that if Calcelmo can't seem to disable the traps within his damned Laboratory(you can over hear the Wizard's Guards talking about the steam leak that happened recently) then Markarth better pray that they are not forced to retreat into any other Dwemer Ruins.

Though speaking of Markarth. In the Opening Post a mini civil war within Whiterun was brought up. Wouldn't the same be possible for Markarth?(I will admit now that I haven't gone through everything in this post so I am most likely too late to this party)

The Silverbloods are loyal to the Stormcloaks. One even believes that the imperials are intentionally keeping them out of the Hall of the Dead. Much like Riften, the entire city is in the Silver Blood's pocket. Now I am going to assume Cidnha(sp) Mines are actually bigger then seen in game.(for reasons that everything in skyrim seems to be more or less scaled down a bit.)

During a siege and if the Silverbloods wanted Ulfric to capture the city... how badly do you think letting a bunch of Forsworn run loose in the streets would be? A simple prison break of course. The Silverblood guards have been taken off the Mine guard duty to help defend the city. Someone, a new blood and milk drinker, was careless...

If anything that Milk Drinker was.... a Stormcloak! At the end of the day... who is going to question them?

Of course this is just more speculation and getting rather creative with things. But I also don't see any of this Markarth business to far fetched. The Silverblood family is always looking to increase it's power as seen in Karthwasten. Also shows that they are not beyond dirty tactics to obtain that power and wealth.

So with a siege of Markarth while the outlook would at first seem grim... who knows. oh and besides. Wose to say there isn't an old Dwemer entrance somewhere in the mountains that leads into some of the old ruins in Markarth itself?(ok now this is just beyond speculation so ignore it)

If Ulfric sticks to more guerilla tactics, which I can assume happens prior to you picking a side in the war. Galmor or whoever that guy is mentions that Ulfric has yet to start the war in full. Small skirmishes and such but nothing big and probably some guerilla warfare along the way.

So who do I pick as the winner?

Honestly? It could go either way.

A part of me is also kinda surprised that Morthal and similar villages are still active and have little to no actual defense. They just seem like easy pickings for either side. while not favorable to the citizens I'd be seriously consideirng just turning them into military camps and evacuating the people.

Which also makes me wonder and not for the first time. Why is it that the stormcloak camp near solitude has yet to be discovered? I mean... it's just off the road. lol

 

[Jeremius]

A Jarl, under the service of the empire no less, arrests Ulfric and backs out of the deal they made with the man. IS that not cowardly? Also, I have trouble on some character siding with a faction that has a General so focused on Public Enemy #1 that he does not notice that the player does not belong there.

 

[Jaeger]

Stormcloaks has better soldiers/equipment. 80% of the random encounters of Imperials/Stormcloaks I've seen has Stormcloaks as the victors. 2-hander rules!

Ulfric has already taken Markarth.

 

[Jaeger]

OP: Vigilant of Stendarrs and combating daedra.

Let's have Storytime! Amulet of Kings

So, wouldn't it be best to worship Talos or the daedra would come back.

Know your lore if you're going to make statements about it.

DA.

 

[Jeremius]

The empire was already failing though. It lost Alinor (Summerset) Valenwood and Elsewyr (Misspelled I know) to the Thalmor and Morrowinf to Argonia (Blackmarsh). If that is not a dying empire, then I don't know what is.